South Africa 4th Wave Risk Index
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This index quantifies the deviation of the data from the hypothesis of a single wave. It gives a measure of the risk for the 4th wave. Where the Risk Index is greater than 10, the risk for the 3rd wave becomes statistically compelling. The 7.5 and 10 risk indexes correspond to medium and high risk, respectively. The risk index is defined as follows:
Where the present day prediction and the total prediction are determined using the SI Model. The SI model is an epidemiological model based on first-order differential equations. It is used to understand the behavior of infectious disease over time using global data on containment conditions.