COVID19 South Africa 2nd Wave Risk Index
This dashboard is developed and maintained by a team of student volunteers.
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This index quantifies the deviation of the data from the hypothesis of a single wave. It gives a measure of the risk for a second wave. Where the Risk Index is greater than 10, the risk for a second wave becomes statistically compelling. The 7.5 and 10 risk indexes correspond to medium and high risk, respectively. The risk index is defined as follows:
Where the present day prediction and the total prediction are determined using the SI Model. The SI model is an epidemiological model based on first-order differential equations. It is used to understand the behavior of infectious disease over time using global data on containment conditions.